2015 CDC stats? I wouldn't hold my breath.
Interestingly, back in '08 the CDC published two very detailed maps indicating "incidence (reported cases) per 100,000" county-by-county for 1992-2008 and 2000-2007. They also had this cool map that was interactive and you could click on your county and see the numbers of cases reported and numbers of "established scapularis and pacifica vectors" from 1907-1996.
lymediseaseguide.org/lyme-disease-mapThese maps are no longer on the CDC site, as far as I can tell. They only exist in prior reports or articles that cited them with an image.
They've been replaced with far less detailed and "schmears" of color across swaths of states that couldn't be more vague indicating prevalence. I haven't looked deeply into how often they revise the actual reporting but it doesn't matter because ALL of the quantification the .gov has done to identify where lyme is and how many people have it is so grossly inaccurate.
I've done some digging into this and will post more info at another time and will include links to studies, articles, etc. in that future post. For the following reasons, I calculated that the true number of "new cases" of Lyme every year is VERY conservatively closer to 2 million.
CDC SURVEILLANCE CASE DEFINITION: This surveillance criteria rules the process of testing, diagnostics and reporting. While it was developed strictly for the CDC's purposes of documenting trends in infectious diseases, and although the DCD has explicitly warned against using this criteria for diagnostic and treatment purposes, the IDSA ignores this and the CDC ignores the fact that the IDSA ignores it. So this criteria keeps "new cases" artificially low through reporting criteria, testing, diagnostics and treating criteria.
UNDERREPORTING: The process by which MDs and State Depts of Health have to follow to report new cases is incredibly cumbersome and most don't report and often DoH's don't follow up in order to confirm. Studies have been done that indicate the majority of cases in GA, CA, MA, MN... it's safe to assume that if there is underreporting in endemic areas, it's happening nationally. Let's conservatively assume 50% of cases are not reported each year. This doubles the CDC's 300,000+ reported cases to 600,000 cases.
INACCURATE TESTS and DIAGNOSTICS: In 2008 appx. 3.4 million lyme tests were administered (clearly, that number has gone up). Studies have shown varied statistics but they probably average to be a 50% accuracy at best for the two-tiered testing criteria ---due to the fact that this two-tiered criteria was designed around the CDC surveillance criteria and include strict criteria that provide false negatives more often than not.
Also, it's nearly impossible to quantify the number of cases that are positive but are denied by ill- or dis-informed MDs.
At best, this is 2 million new cases per year...
Keep in mind that these are the LUCKY people who were able to see a tick or EM rash and/or caught it early and/or got to a knowledgable MD who was willing to ignore IDSA Guidelines and administer the right test (often this is the IGeneX test) and all this was done "in time", etc... this is truly crapshoot.
And keep in mind that this is just NEW cases in one year.
Math hurts.
-p
Post Edited (Pirouette) : 7/20/2016 7:19:33 PM (GMT-6)