COVID-19

Thanks Girlie glad to hear it!

Hi everyone! I wanted to see what you guys think of the situation where our cd57 is low, below normal, what are our chances of surviving this virus? I don’t get sick at all. I normally got a few colds per years but now that I’m sick with Lyme, I don’t get any colds at all. There were just a few months where my cd57 rose to around 100 and I started getting colds and it would take 2 months to get over it. Then my numbers ranked again below normal and no more colds the past couple years. Wonder how my body would respond if I got Corona? What happens to the viruses we get and don’t fight off? Just something I’ve been thinking about...

InhousePharmacy isn't shipping either. UnitedPharmacies is shipping from Hong Kong, but many items are out of stock.

Cignet said...
potsnpans

I know fine well that life is gonna ago back to normal by summer and we'll all be reeling from the economic effects of this fiasco for God knows how long. .

No you don't, and pretending like you do is being in denial. This is novel. Most don't have immunity. It is very contagious. WHO estimated R0 between 2 - 2.5. Researchers found that R0 on the Diamond princess was 2.28. That is very contagious as far as pandemics go.

Compare to R0s of recent flu pandemics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

In a study of 72,314 Chinese patients (large sample) 80.9% of cases were mild, 13.8% severe, 4.7% critical. 18.5% being severe/critical doesn't give me the happy butterflies feeling. Anything severe and up needs hospitalization and assistance in breathing to the best of my understanding.

Italy, Spain, Iran showing what happens when spread gets out of control and hospitals get overrun.

So yeah, it's not the apocalypse, but it clearly is a big deal.

As far as the media piece; many people in my neck of the woods are accusing local media of fear-mongering just for updating the local and state count everyday. Yes, the media everywhere is hyper focused on this. That's because it's elephant in the room. Maybe more accurate to say it's the elephant in the world right now. I'm sorry but this virus doesn't care about our feelings. There isn't a whole lot of good news right now beyond the majority of us will be okay. If you watch the news all day you will be pissed off and unhappy. Everybody should limit their news intake. Stay informed but don't overwhelm yourselves.

You are misinterpreting or twisting data to fit your narrative.

R0 is thought to be between 2 - 2.5. Diamond Princess was 2.28. In the examples I gave:

89-90 Flu: best estimate R0: 2.10, infected between 20-60% of the population

Spanish Flu: best estimate R0: 1.8, infected between 33 - 55% of the population

Swine flu 2009: best estimate R0: 1.46, infected 11-21% of the population

Unless you think every person in the world can psychically isolate for 3 weeks this virus isn't going to magically go away. Best hope is for mutation that makes virus less contagious among humans or mutation in which virus ceases to cause disease in humans OR a vaccine is rolled out in unthinkable time (not sure how that is possible). There is no reason to believe the virus will magically disappear. Long incubation periods and asymptomatic individuals make it very likely this virus will stick around for a long time (w/o a vaccine, or mutation) and there will be more than one wave to ride. Waves will get smaller as herd immunity becomes stronger.

Fatality rate: of course is it incomplete, but calling it useless is an attempt to throw out evidence without having any evidence for doing so because it fits with your narrative. It is logical to assume many more have this than officially confirmed. It's also known that until epidemiologists study this in the months and years post-pandemic we won't have the best estimates for stats.

Swine flu death estimates went significantly up in post-pandemic analysis. There is no reason to think the same won't be true of COVID-19

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2013/11/26/247379604/2009-flu-pandemic-was-10-times-more-deadly-than-previously-thought

"Further to that, over 75% of those who died in Italy, had at least 2 preexisting chronic conditions of the diabetes, COPD, heart diesease etc variety... Not to mention an elderly population. There are outliers, of course and when the media reports on them it hits hard but it no less is what it is, statistical anomalies. That in turn generates more fear."

Can you imagine how many people are walking around right now pretending they don't have underlying conditions? 40% of Americans are considered obese. Obesity in itself is associated with heart disease, high BP, metabolic syndrome, and cancer. This isn't even taking account of things like diabetes and auto-immune illness among others. This isn't about fear. It's about facts. Yes, older people are more at risk. Do they not matter?

"It's a highly contagious disease but it really isn't a highly fatal disease. Spanish flu you could watch someone sputtering and then drop dead half a day later. The issue is indeed, with the sick and elderly."

It's not a lethal disease but even a 1% fatality rate, which is reasonable speculation, could ultimately be too high or too low, would be devastating given it's contagiousness.

"18.75% chance of a horrible/severe experience is pretty low all things considered if you factor in the fact that these people already have preexisting conditions. That's just a description of what went on. The chances of that are even lower in reality."

Highly subjective opinion. For me, that is an insanely high % of patients needing help to breathe. Of course I am glad over 80% of those 72,000+ were asymptomatic or mild, but that still leaves a high amount needing help JUST TO BREATHE.

"Wuhan, has relaxed controls. Hubei, Wuhan, all have populations in the millions and they were able to contain it. They have reported nearly a month without any major reoccurences so far. Economically this is going to screw things up for at least 5 years. Our leaders are plain incompetent."

Have you read about the lengths China had to go to contain this within Quhan/Hubei province? It was martial law. It was a high level of surveillance. There were roadblocks. Air travel stopped in and out. Drones were used to monitor citizen movement. Contact tracing was aggressive. PA systems were set up in the city with government instructions. It was VERY controlling. That won't happen in the U.S. That won't happen in most places in the world. I'm hoping the measures most places in the U.S. have put in place works, but I am very doubtful. Locally the places that count as essential business is a joke. Pretty much everything is essential business. They just closed bars, dine in, gyms and large organized gatherings.

"I'm betting we will be close to normal come summer. It really looks that way, for Europe at least. Europe will be on trend for Wuhan relaxing controls perhaps at the start of May but no more schools etc. will continue."

In order for things to be normal, barring a vaccine or genetic mutation, the virus will have to be contained. It will still be circulating, but with aggressive recognition of new cases with testing and aggressive contact tracing things could get more back to normal. However, It won't be "normal". There will still be a looming threat of new outbreak without those measures working. America isn't even close to this scenario at this point.

" Economically this is going to screw things up for at least 5 years."

The economy should open back up in the specific areas in which the virus is controlled. I agree with that, but to arbitrarily open up the economy now would be putting money over lives. I can't respect anybody with this viewpoint. It wouldn't even work anyways. Companies would open up and infected employees would come in and infect their susceptible co-workers. Infection would spread and the business would have to close anyways. Good job. Not only did you spread infection, but the economy will be hurt anyway. Nobody is getting out of this economically unscathed.

"See where the problems come from? Please don't say things like I'm in denial. I've reasoned through it all, all quite soundly if I'm frank."

Your reasoning is flawed and , in my subjective opinion, disrespectful. It's disrespectful to those who have already gone through this and it caused serious illness. It's disrespectful to those who will go through it. It's disrespectful to those who already have or will die from this. It's disrespect for the nurses and doctors who are putting their health on the line. It's disrespectful to the loved ones of those who will have a serious illness or die.

Nobody that knows what they are talking about is saying this is the end of the world. However, those that know what they are talking about know this is serious. Many will get sick. Many will need help breathing. Many will die. It's disrespectful to downplay that.

It’s already worse than the seasonal flu where I am - BC Canada.
We have had 6 deaths in a Care home (elderly) with more sick.
This is in a short amount of time.

My neighbour works in our hospital and he reported that the ICU is overflowing and the nurses are working overtime to tend to the patients.
Pre lyme I was a staff scheduler and the seasonal flu was never this bad.
This will get worse - we were later getting the outbreak - it’s going to get worse yet.

I will be getting groceries delivered and stay home to minimize my exposure.

Hopefully I won’t get it from my husband - it’s a few more days before he’s considered safe.

Inspiredby3 said...
Hi everyone! I wanted to see what you guys think of the situation where our cd57 is low, below normal, what are our chances of surviving this virus? I don’t get sick at all. I normally got a few colds per years but now that I’m sick with Lyme, I don’t get any colds at all. There were just a few months where my cd57 rose to around 100 and I started getting colds and it would take 2 months to get over it. Then my numbers ranked again below normal and no more colds the past couple years. Wonder how my body would respond if I got Corona? What happens to the viruses we get and don’t fight off? Just something I’ve been thinking about...

I don’t know - like you I don’t get flus or colds - so not sure if I’m more susceptible or less.

Inspiredby3 said...
Hi everyone! I wanted to see what you guys think of the situation where our cd57 is low, below normal, what are our chances of surviving this virus? I don’t get sick at all. I normally got a few colds per years but now that I’m sick with Lyme, I don’t get any colds at all. There were just a few months where my cd57 rose to around 100 and I started getting colds and it would take 2 months to get over it. Then my numbers ranked again below normal and no more colds the past couple years. Wonder how my body would respond if I got Corona? What happens to the viruses we get and don’t fight off? Just something I’ve been thinking about...

nobody knows. i was actually searching this forum for lyme fellows sick with coronavirus, just to see get some insight. I guess there are none so far, but there will be soon.

it is hard to tell, our immune systems are ... imbalanced. i dont think we are 'normal humans' in terms of immune response. this might explain why we dont develop colds that easily. i read in a paper once that lyme puts our innate immune response in overdrive and makes the adaptive one less efficient.

these viruses rely on some type of default human being to infect. if your innate immune response (the one that u have before specific antibodies develop - usually involves a lot of inflammation) is always on, this may not provide good grounds for easily enter and infect cells..... or ... it may be that the virus can get to us easier and we get serious disease more easily. there is no way to tell.

But i will be an optimist and lean towards the first hypothesis: For example, there is evidence that untreated MS (which sometimes is very similar with chronic lyme disease) patients have lower cancer risk than normal people (especially if u do not take immune suppressing medication). https://n.neurology.org/content/72/13/1170
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2019.02954/full/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27919487
https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00313623


"Results: With an average of 35 years of follow-up, there was a decreased overall cancer risk among patients with MS (hazard ratio = 0.91, 0.87–0.95). Increased risks were observed for brain tumors (1.44, 1.21–1.72) and urinary organ cancer (1.27, 1.05–1.53). Parents of patients with MS did not have a notably increased or decreased overall cancer risk.

Conclusions: The reduction in cancer risk in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) may result from behavioral change, treatment, or we speculate that some immunologic characteristics of MS disease activity improve antitumor surveillance. The lack of association among parents indicates that a simple inherited characteristic is unlikely to explain the reduced cancer risk among patients with MS. MS is associated with increased risk for some cancers, such as of urinary organs and brain tumors (although surveillance bias may be responsible)."

this is probably because of the same reason, an always on immune system , has a huge disadvantage of destroying tissues but also has a small advantage because your cancer cells are more easily found and killed. maybe other bacteria/viruses too !

i dont want to say that we are certainly less prone to infection by covid. we may be in a hi risk group, so please protect yourself !! there is simply no way to know until some people here will sadly get sick of covid and luckily survive go back and tell us. I sure hope none of you get sick ! But if u do and recover, please come back and tell us

Mpost “ nobody knows. i was actually searching this forum for lyme fellows sick with coronavirus, just to see get some insight. I guess there are none so far, but there will be soon.”

I am doing well - and was exposed to my sick husband.
I did have a headache and cough last night but now feel fine.

“ Girlie: I know your husband is suspected of having had the disease, and you're still basically living in separate parts of the house... Are you still feeling ok yourself?“

Yes I’m good. We have separate bathrooms and bedrooms.

We have watched tv together though -but distance between us.

I believe he is day10 from start of symptoms now

Strange i also had a beginning sore throat and it went away.

Quin said...
My neighbor has been coughing. I've been exposed to something, not sure if it was COVID-19.

I had a little bit of a sore throat and itchy eyes, but now it went away. I've been taking mepron.

Does mepron work as an anti-viral? I don't know, maybe. I've also been taking a zinc ionophore (valproate).

Another person here is sick now. I've definitely been exposed. I am not sick.

This study suggests valproic acid might affect coronavirus due to its interaction with HDAC2.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.002386v1

isitlyme said...
Strange i also had a beginning sore throat and it went away.

A lot of people with Lyme disease seem to be surprisingly immune to COVID-19. What meds are you taking?

I’m guessing if you don’t commonly get colds, you might get this either. Low immune cell volume is concern of uncertainty for some, including myself, but volume and strength are not the same.

That said, I’m guarded in my whereabouts better safe than sorry. Zink lozenges are proven for cold viruses, worked for myself in the past and i have bags of them.

I’m in a lockdown state, it’s really only retail jobs effected - not much. But that’s 75% of cars out there.

Won’t be going to Walmart germmart for a while, as there shoppers are clueless!!!! Stay out!!! Kids all over, coughing sneezing out in the open- stupid , stupid people, unbelievably bad there compared to target or a classy health food store. I will pay more to shop with safer more conscious people.