COVID-19

If the death count is off 15% does it really make a difference? I think its unlikely that its off by more then that it would take a larger coordinated effort over a large period of time to accomplish this people are two uncoordinated. Most numbers are corrected when they find a mistake and people scream its a conspiracy when its just a confused or lazy worker.

Did any of you see the movie Bubble Boy?

That's what this COVID-19 situation reminds me of.

Can't wait for it to be over.

ChristianWithLyme said...
I've posted a link at bottom of this post to the document from which the following quote was taken. Dated March 24, 2020.

"Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or CONTRIBUTED (emphasis mine) to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II. (See attached Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths)"

The CDC is clarifying their protocol for when covid-19 testing is unavailable (maybe due to a testing shortage, maybe the patient died in the home, etc.). This was in an email sent to notify those responsible about the new ICD code created for covid-19 in March. You've gotten hung up on the word "contributed"- I don't see anything to be concerned about here.
From the same email and regarding the code:

“Will COVID-19 be the underlying cause?
The underlying cause depends upon what and where conditions are reported on the death certificate. However, the rules for coding and selection of the underlying cause of death are expected to result in COVID-19 being the underlying cause more often than not.”

So if this code is being used and existing rules are followed, it is likely that this code will end up on part 1 of a death certificate. If covid-19 is a “contributing” cause, the code should be listed in part 2 of the death certificate.

Here’s a blank death certificate:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/death11-03final-acc.pdf

“PART II. Enter other significant conditions contributing to death but not resulting in the underlying cause given in PART I”

...Do you have any reason to be concerned that when covid-19 is listed in part 2 of a death certificate, that it would be counted as a covid-19 death by the CDC?

Somebody said...
You really should listen to the interview of Dr. Jensen in one of my above posts. He goes into detail about the death certificates and how things were changed for Covid. He says the "contributed" part is where the CDC went wrong.

From your linked video with Dr. Jenson he says:

“When the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) said that we can go ahead and put the cause of death as covid-19, if it contributed, that’s where they went wrong.”

It sounds like he's saying at some point the MDH made a statement that when covid-19 is only a contributing factor, that it should be listed in part 1 of the death certificate. Unfortunately Dr. Jenson did not provide any evidence of this, the show didn’t dig anything up for its viewers, and the interviewer didn’t ask any additional questions to Dr. Jenson about this claim.

I looked through the covid-19 section of the MDH and I could only find this:

“Data collected as part of death registration is consistent with the CDC’s U.S. Standard Death Certificate.”

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/hcp/reportdeath.html

If you happen to know what he's talking about specifically, please let me know...

potsnpans said...
CWL: I think there's tons of scrutiny in the death count calculation right now, due to the politics. I still haven't seen any major discrepancies that weren't already explained in the NYT article. You really do need to read it. These things should be getting cleared up at the state level, if not by the CDC.

Did you read the entire article from the link you just added? This is the last paragraph:

"We asked Petrino if these erroneous deaths were reported to the state Department of Health and counted toward official COVID death counts, and he said the DOH should have caught the mistakes and not included them."

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

It's well understood that the death count is likely under counted at this point. We can see this when analyzing excess deaths over the time period COVID has been active. Never has a pandemic had so many resources put forward to try to accurately capture what is happening at real time.Because of that I wouldn't expect the under count to be dramatic, but from what I've read it's likely around 10 - 25% at the moment.

These onesey, twosey situations in which news agencies are reporting likely mistakes such as the case of the guy in Florida who died of a motorcycles crash and was counted as a COVID death are totally misleading the public. This is dangerous reporting as it empowers those who want to believe this is all a hoax or overblown.

Of course, I want the data to be as accurate and transparent as possible. However, with the amount of tests that are being administered, and the amount of deaths that are happening there will be mistakes. We have to look at the big picture to find out what is most likely true.

America's Frontline Doctor's Summit. Washington, DC. Very interesting. Live today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckbqbcinhna&feature=youtu.be

I think we'll have to agree to disagree, potsnpans.

And when considering excess deaths, we have to remember that shut downs, fear of going to the hospital, etc. cause deaths also.

We just got the results of our third round of testing. All negatives. It must not be as contagious as they are saying? My grandson literally slobbered into my eyeball when he first had his fever before we knew he was covid positive. Not beside or around my eye but in it.

I will say all of us are taking NAC are O positive blood types and doing bvt so maybe that helped but as close as we all are we should all have it. Not complaining. Just thought for sure we would have it. If I'm being honest I'm a little sad the quarentine is over. We were having a lot of fun as a family. Now wife and son go back to work, daughter back to college and me back to watching grandson. At least we can go grocery shopping now.

WV Mike said...

I will say all of us are taking NAC are O positive blood types and doing bvt so maybe that helped but as close as we all are we should all have it.

that was an early research paper that was invalidated by a much larger study
https://hms.harvard.edu/news/covid-19-blood-type

"The large retrospective review showed no significant connection between blood type and worsening of the disease, between blood type and the need for hospitalization, positioning requirements for patients during intubation, or any inflammatory markers.

“Inflammation is a particularly important finding because prevailing scientific thought is that COVID-19 wreaks havoc on the body through systemic inflammation, which can lead to morbidity and death,” Dua said. “We found, however, that inflammation markers remained similar in infected patients regardless of their blood type

An intriguing finding from the study was that there appeared to be a greater chance of people with blood types B and AB who were Rh positive testing positive for the virus. Even stronger evidence was assembled by the team that symptomatic people with blood type O were less likely to test positive."

the virus is however very contagious. More contagious than flu. So maybe it's not the virus but your luck

ChristianWithLyme said...
I think we'll have to agree to disagree, potsnpans.

And when considering excess deaths, we have to remember that shut downs, fear of going to the hospital, etc. cause deaths also.

The methodology is in the studies. You can research it yourself. Statisticians factor in all sorts of stuff. From what I've researched, I haven't seen any studies, news reports, or expert testimonials that indicate an over count of the deaths. There is plenty of those in the other direction. Again, it's not a huge under count, which is great, due to the mass resources dedicated towards surveillance of COVID, but it's not logical to think we are going to catch every infection (we know that's not the case) or every death with a virus this infectious and widespread. We have to start living in reality if we want to get control of this thing in the U.S.

This thing isn't the end of the world. The survival rate is high. However, it's extremely transmissible. We can't save everybody, but we can prevent a significant # of illnesses, hospitalizations, and death with behavior modification. This is only temporary. Anecdotally, we are hearing more and more of people struggling with illness months after the initial infection. I have to be honest when I say I'm surprised there are people here with chronic Lyme that are not more emphathetic with the current situation. If anybody knows how terrible chronic illness is it's this community.

That said I have zero confidence that the U.S. population will achieve this. A good chunk of people are too far gone down the rabbit hole of politicization and denialism. As soon as the politicians made this an "Us vs. Them" issue it was game over. Tribalism is a tough cookie to crack.

Post Edited (Lymie24) : 7/27/2020 9:39:23 AM (GMT-6)

CWL: Well we can't talk to Dr. Jenson on HealingWell. What is it about my explanation that you can't agree with? You could also answer this question specifically:
"...Do you have any reason to be concerned that when covid-19 is listed in part 2 of a death certificate, that it would be counted as a covid-19 death by the CDC?"

We're all concerned about politics mucking things up. Dr. Jenson happens to be a Republican state senator in Minnesota. I'm interested in what he has to say, but there definitely needs to be evidence of his claims.

Del Bigree's YouTube show had the opportunity to vet his claims and present evidence themselves. It seems the show's larger objective is to sow distrust and outrage towards the institutions we need to rely on right now. I noticed you came away from the show thinking Dr. Jenson was talking about the CDC, when in fact he was only talking about the MDH.

ChristianWithLyme said...
He says the "contributed" part is where the CDC went wrong."

ChristianWithLyme said...
I'm arguing that what was said indicates that if Covid contributed to the death, it could be put in Part I, not in Part 2, and I think that was what Dr. Jensen believed and still believes was indicated. I don't know all the reasons why he believes that. That's what I am gathering

Yes, we have established that this is what he was saying was the case in Minnesota, at some point. Watch it again, he was very specific in saying "the Minnesota Department of Health". He should be able to provide proof of this, though. There has to be a written record.

I wonder if Dr Jenson has even been practicing medicine through the pandemic, or just fulfilling his duties as a state senator...

Anyway, I think your conflating what he said about the MDH, with what YOU think about the email from the CDC.

Regarding how YOU are understanding that part of the email: If it's taken out of context as it was when it was first presented to you, then as a layperson I can see how you might understand it that way (I might've understood it that way myself, or at least thought it was ambiguous).
But if you're a professional who actually received the email in March, and you're reading about when to use this new code, it'd be silly to think that this was also changing foundational rules for filling out death certificates. Remember, that part of the email was only written to clarify if the new "COVID-19" code can be used when testing is unavailable...

"Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

The problem is, you're being presented this info in a deceptive manner and I'm afraid it's being presented this way on purpose.

Post Edited (potsnpans) : 7/28/2020 6:40:25 AM (GMT-6)

Session 2. Live now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ax_q1fay9pi

potsnpans, the doctor's words can speak for himself. The following are two of the videos of him that I have posted previously (he speaks about death certificates in both). I can get into trouble trying to explain what someone else means. All should listen to the videos and judge for themselves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny4ni-yumpg&list=plr8f_swwzprsxd3rbhh_8agxrkjz15ire&index=16

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgmvnkvpbsu&list=plr8f_swwzprsxd3rbhh_8agxrkjz15ire&index=32