potsnpans said...
isitlyme:.. the healthy participants in the placebo group cancel out the healthy participants in vaccine group.. that's why it seems they are not "counting all of the trial participants" when they are determining efficacy rates.
Potsnpans, i see what you mean, but it does not make sense. The health in both groups does not and should never cancel each group and vice versa, that's why they are included in the first place. But, even if that is the case, then that is why the trial is a complete joke.
If we have a trial of 10.000 people, equally divided in both groups, and in the end, only 10 participants, both from placebo and vaccine, but only 2 from the vaccine get sick, we now can claim that the efficacy of the vaccine is 95%??!! This is not based on reality. In a trial we must count always with all participants, always.
We cannot just drop the remaining participants out, just because they stayed healthy. They are needed to compare the end results. They can show if the vaccine is not needed at all to prevent infection. Let me explain.
The fact is, that only 178 participants got infected, 169 of the placebo and only 9 of the vaccine. This cannot be interpreted, as the vaccine being effective, because there could have been several reasons why the 169 in the placebo were infected.
My point is, perhaps the 169 in the placebo had failed to apply safety measures (Masks, etc) and the 160 (Equal comparison to match the 169 placebo), from the vaccine applied safety measures correctly and never got infected for that reason alone or any other reason besides the vaccine. Of course the researchers (Pfizer) prefer never to count on that reasons.
Why again? Because what happened to the remaining thousands of both placebo and vaccine. And what happened to them?
They didn't get infected and stayed healthy. Just as the 160 from the vaccine stayed healthy!! I am using the number 160 because it represents the 95% of the vaccinated group who were not infected, compared to the 160 who were from the placebo The 160 healthy, right? The number 95% comes from there potsnpans.
These 160 (95%) were "not canceled out" by the sicked ones, did they? Right, that's what you thinking. On the other hand, they purposely cut, or cancel out, as you will, the remaining thousands in the vaccine who stayed healthy too??
Do you realize that the healthy in the placebo did "not canceled out"
all the healthy on the vaccine group? They only canceled out, the ones that were convenient to them, wish were the remaining thousands. This is insane and out of reality.
The reasons for the 160 healthy on the vaccine group, not getting sick, might have been the same reasons, for the remaining thousands on the vaccine group not getting sick too, and the vaccine could have not been the factor that prevent it the infection at all. Do you get it now? That´s why the canceling idea does not fit.
But i thank you for sharing your thoughts, it made me scrutinize and uncover the answer your idea more precisely.
Post Edited (isitlyme) : 3/22/2021 10:12:36 PM (GMT-6)