Been watching this discussion, since it was much on my mind over the past year.
TA's reminder about
the recurrence criterion being a rise of at least 2 points about
the post-radiation nadir (Phoenix criterion) made me think about
this chart I made last year. (I posted this, but can't seem to find that thread.) Note that the blue line is hypothetical, that's the speculative trend it might have been without ADT, with a speculative bounce thrown in. It's just to illustrate the idea.
PSA vs. Time, post radiation and ADT recovery patternAnyway, I had a really fast PSA rise once my 3 years of ADT wore off and testosterone recovered. While alarming, it seems to have followed a theory I heard where ADT was suppressing the "actual" post-radiation PSA number. The rapid rise was really just getting up to the trend line it would otherwise have had after IGRT. Even 4 years later, the PSA could still "actually" be varying, and even now we're still seeing a slow decline to its eventual real post-treatment value.
The point is, by earlier criteria (3 consecutive rises without a threshold requirement), and according to one oncologist I immediately fired, I would have embarked on a series of scans and maybe even treatments unnecessarily. It took a
year of patience to see the result, and even now it still seems to be slowly declining.
That graphic is a somewhat crude attempt to explain what we saw. It may give some comfort to those seeing their PSA varying after radiation (and ADT). Personally, I think the team that developed the so-called
"Phoenix" criteria for recurrence were some pretty smart folks knew what they were doing.
PCa is a real mind game....