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Is there a nomogram to predict/estimate my future?

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Posted 8/2/2018 6:49 PM (GMT -5)
I just got my latest PSA result, a year following SRT, and it was good: <.008. For the first time in a long while I'm starting to be a bit optimistic. I'm celebrating as I type by drinking a very nice bottle of wine. Not sure yet if I will finish it tonight.

I also have a serious question. Is there a nomogram to predict/estimate my future? The salvage radiation nomograms I've seen have a lowest pre-SRT psa of .1. Mine was .05. When I run the MSKCC nomogram and use .1 as my psa score, it shows a 39% probability of remaining cancer free for 6 years. That's not particularly encouraging! Is there a nomogram that fits my circumstances better?
Posted 8/2/2018 6:59 PM (GMT -5)
Call me if you need virtual help finishing the bottle. Congrats!

I've wondered the same thing about nomograms for early salvage (<0.1). But even if our true chance of longterm freedom from BCR is more like 70 percent, I'm determined to remain pessimistic and brace for bad news every time.
Posted 8/2/2018 7:10 PM (GMT -5)
Saipan, I just faxed you a glass of wine. Enjoy! I'm feeling optimistic right now, but I suspect that in four months when I get my next test I will be expecting only the worst. For now, however, Cheers!
Posted 8/2/2018 7:15 PM (GMT -5)
Fiddle that's the news we like to hear about!!
Posted 8/2/2018 7:17 PM (GMT -5)
Whoo-hoo!
Posted 8/2/2018 7:41 PM (GMT -5)
Great news!!!

not sure there's a nomogram for this situation.

Just go enjoy life.
and pass that bottle around.
Posted 8/2/2018 8:28 PM (GMT -5)
Here's one - it's not very good with low PSAs (low sample size) though:



riskcalc.org/ProstateCancerAfterRadicalProstatectomyNew/
Posted 8/2/2018 8:59 PM (GMT -5)

fiddlecanoe said...
I just got my latest PSA result, a year following SRT, and it was good: <.008. For the first time in a long while I'm starting to be a bit optimistic. I'm celebrating as I type by drinking a very nice bottle of wine. Not sure yet if I will finish it tonight.

I also have a serious question. Is there a nomogram to predict/estimate my future? The salvage radiation nomograms I've seen have a lowest pre-SRT psa of .1. Mine was .05. When I run the MSKCC nomogram and use .1 as my psa score, it shows a 39% probability of remaining cancer free for 6 years. That's not particularly encouraging! Is there a nomogram that fits my circumstances better?

Horay, Fiddlecanoe! What an incredibly low number!
Posted 8/2/2018 9:01 PM (GMT -5)
Man I don't like that namogram!

Larry
Posted 8/2/2018 9:22 PM (GMT -5)
Great report fiddlecanoe
Posted 8/2/2018 9:23 PM (GMT -5)
The only time to use nomograms is when there's a treatment decision to make. Otherwise you might as well consult a crystal ball.

I had a better than 80% chance of reaching the end of my life without having PCa, or at least without ever knowing I had PCa. Uh, that didn't work out so well.

Then I had a better than 80% chance my PCa would be no worse than intermediate risk. Really.

Nomograms. Gimme a break.
Posted 8/2/2018 9:27 PM (GMT -5)
Great report. I say skip the namogram -- in the end, it's binary, i.e. 0 or 1.

But more importantly, white or red? Varietal? Vintage? New world or old world?
Posted 8/2/2018 10:21 PM (GMT -5)
The wine in question is an Italian red from 2007. It would be a pleasure to share it with you all.
I agree with everyone who says that there is no point in trying to figure out the future with a nomogram. The future will be what it will be. This seems like as good a time as any to quote the great philosopher, Doris Day:
"Que sera, sera,
Whatever will be, will be;
The future's not ours to see.
Que sera, sera,
What will be, will be."
Posted 8/3/2018 3:36 AM (GMT -5)
Really brilliant news. Congratulations from Downunder! The wine sounds sensational too BTW! Think you've earned it...!
Posted 8/3/2018 9:18 AM (GMT -5)
Outstanding News Fiddlecanoe!

Sounds like an Italian Red from '07 is a perfect choice for that kind of good news.

Enjoy!
Posted 8/3/2018 2:42 PM (GMT -5)
I've got my last bottle of 2004 Il Palazzone Brunello di Montalcino Riserva (/www.cellartracker.com/wine.asp?iWine=894382) waiting for when I complete my IMRT and brachy seeds implant.

Perhaps we need a new forum or thread -- prostate cancer treatment / results wine celebration choices ;)
Posted 8/3/2018 4:14 PM (GMT -5)
Mrs. Paradise and I cracked open a fresh box of Peter Vella Burgundy when I completed SRT. Yum!
Posted 8/3/2018 10:22 PM (GMT -5)
Nice! I'm a teetotaler, but will raise a cuppa 2004 vintage Oolong tea in your honor!
Posted 8/4/2018 7:41 AM (GMT -5)
Fiddlecanoe, great to hear. Screw the nomogram; as CADog says, it’s binary, and he’s proved his wisdom by choosing the Brunello di Montalcino. For me it will be Oban with a little water, although the 1997 Rosso di Montalcino is tempting before it goes bad.
Posted 8/4/2018 7:53 AM (GMT -5)
Thanks for all the good wishes. Participating in this group, whether the latest news is good or bad, has been tremendously beneficial for me. I also like the beverage choices mentioned here: great wines, Oban scotch, and oolong tea (which I happen to be drinking now).
Posted 8/4/2018 8:53 AM (GMT -5)
Fiddle, I'm a little late to your party but enthusiastic none the less! I'm really happy for you!!!

Jim
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