we're not even where we we were at prior to this spike in terms of new cases and deaths. if we are the beginning of herd immunity we should continue to drop below 800-1000 deaths a day, which did not happen after the last surge.

i hear what you're saying. the drop is quicker than expected!

Hopefully we're well past the end of the beginning, and near the beginning of the end. 🙂

I think a lot of the drop is the fact that the holidays are behind us and--at least here in So Cal--things got so bad with ICU past capacity that folks started taking things a bit more seriously in terms of masking, social distancing.

From what I've read, the question is if there will be a fourth wave powered by more contagious variants prior to getting a critical percentage of people vaccinated. Hope we can avoid that.

~56 million+ people have had at least one dose. That is ~twice the number of people who have tested positive (~27 MM). For every positive test how many people do you think went undetected (asymptomatic cases)?

Assuming the US has ~330 MM people Here is a small table that shows how close we might be to herd immunity

Asymptomatic Ratio, % of population with some immunity
2, 33.3%
3, 41.5%
4, 49.7%
5, 57.9%
6, 66.1%
7, 74.2%

So if there were actually 2 cases that were infected when they found 1, approximately 33% of the population has had exposure (either via vaccine or having had the virus). If there were 7 cases when they found 1 approximately 74% of the population has had exposure. I do not pretend to know how many asymptomatics were running around but I bet the multiplier is more than 2.

Everyday we are dosing ~1 MM people. That is 0.3% of the population. So every month ~9% or so receives some exposure due to vaccine. There are less and less defenseless hosts. What goes up exponentially goes down exponentially.

Gentlemen, we are officially on offense.

Appreciative of the thoughts, statistics, and reflections offered here ...

Pratoman, I read the highlighted article you posted above --- very well written, very interesting to read.

Every vaccination counts!
CYCLONE ~ # Iowa State University

this is great news! i asked this question after my first shot and now it's finally been answered!

https://news.yahoo.com/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prove-92-193917869.html

A researcher from Johns Hopkins believes we are closer to herd immunity than we think.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/well-have-herd-immunity-by-april-11613669731

The author of this oped is Dr. Makary who is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine.

"Follow the science and data..." - This is much like climate change causes and effects where one PhD says one thing and another PhD says something else all based on the "data". I have sat in meetings with PhD's arguing about something that goes on and on and they agree to disagree for now and then agree that more data is needed and volunteer to be part of that group when funding is secured.

Find a study that does not end with "further study is required" and I will buy someone a beer.

Djin - I will bet someone somewhere got killed in a car accident on the way to or from a vaccination site....

>>On an upbeat note, I've heard that no one has died from a Covid vaccine and no one vaccinated has died as a direct result of Covid. I hope that is and remains true.<<

so we are told ;-)

My understanding is of those that have been fully vaccinated, including in trials, there has been 100% protection against hospitalization and death.
There were 4 "breakthrough" cases in Oregon, people who tested positive for covid AFTER full vaccination. All four cases ranged from asymptomatic, to mild symptoms.

On another note, Ms Pratoman and I went to brunch today, first time in a restaurant since this pandemic started. I felt safe, their were a fair amount o people in the restaurant (outdoor dining of course) but the nearest table was at least 8-10 feet away. Still it felt a little weird. Baby steps

Great news out of Israel.

https://m.jpost.com/breaking-news/coronavirus-vaccine-99-percent-effective-in-preventing-serious-disease-death-659613

62gal said...
I had covid jan 1st, got over it and now just had my first pfizer shot. Do I need the second shot.

Preliminary research https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-covid-19-survivors-one-shot-may-be-enough-preliminary-studies-show-11613903400 says no. But this has not been peer reviewed or thoroughly vetted. If it was me I would get the second shot anyway....

Jim