I read the following article:
Prognostic model predicting metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer survival in men treated with second-line chemotherapy, by Susan Halabi, et al., October 17, 2013. Abstract at
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24136890For those of you interested in survival by using
cabazitaxel, and want to calculate it, that is, if this will be your last treatment
(!). You can actually use this model by simply entering your data at
/www.cancer.duke.edu/Nomogram/secondlinechemotherapy.htmlAccording to the authors one of the shortcomings in the model is that LDH (Lactate dehydrogenase) ' was not evaluated because it was not collected in the TROPIC trial.' Cancer can raise the LDH level, so LDH can be considered as a measure of cancer burden. A simple test I once saw, is LDH > 220 or < 220.
One of the older models, Nomogram for Overall Survival of Patients With Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer After Castration, by Oren Smaletz, et al. (2002), used: age, KPS, HGB, PSA, LDH, ALP, and albumin. (KPS=Karnofsky Performance Status).
Based on the TAX327 study (2004), Armstrong, et al. made A Contemporary Prognostic Nomogram for Men with Hormone-Refractory Metastatic Prostate-Cancer. This allows you predict survival
before you start docetaxel and if that will be your last treatment. It required: KPS, HGB, PSA, PSADT, ALP, and info about
the metastases, such as number of metastases, liver metastasis, pain, progression. No LDH here either.
The next model they made was a 'Prediction of Survival
following First-Line Chemotherapy in Men with Castration-Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer', January 2010. This is the time remaining after progression on docetaxel. Now the list is shorter: KPS, HGB, ALP, and pain, number of metastases, liver metastasis, time since DX.
It is clear to me that making this kind of models is a popular sport among oncologists.