Question about MSK monogram

Smara, yes, you are correct, based on the numbers you present, over time the chance of recurrence goes up. I don’t recall your husbands pathology but if it’s adverse pathology, this would make sense, intuitively.

But I wouldn’t let it make you crazy. That same nomogram showed my chance of not having BCR (rising PSA) at 5 years was about 95% (I don’t remember exactly, but it was mid 90’s). And I recurred. I’ve seen guys with worse numbers who did NOT recur.

to be fair Pratoman...it is not definitive that you had bcr...and also ...not definitive...that if you in truth/fact did,,,that treatment was required...you chose to do so for personal reasons...after doing due diligence...Damm every time I hear that phone...its ringing....just trying to stop the telephone....Smara read Walshes book on Pca as well as others...there can be a very long time between " BCR" and required treatment...this is a forum with fallible people...We are all very far removed from...those who have much more knowledge...learning...and experience in the Pca conundrum...I will exclude GP from this group however...if they are under 70...( just graciously thowing in a easy point to to be countered for face saving puposes)..always allow an out...it gets nasty...when ya don't...I've learned how groups...move ...over the years

The simple explanation is that the number of recurrences increases with time by definition, it just cannot decrease because it is a sum of cases, including those that have already recurred before. However, it does not mean that the probability of having a recurrence after 5 years is greater than before. On the contrary, is smaller as you can see in a previous reply.

I gave up Nomograms after MSK's told me that there was a 99% chance I would be dead within 5 years once I became castrate resistant.

Now I live like I was dieing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9tshlmkqnc

logoslidat said...
to be fair Pratoman...it is not definitive that you had bcr...and also ...not definitive...that if you in truth/fact did,,,that treatment was required...you chose to do so for personal reasons...after doing due diligence...Damm every time I hear that phone...its ringing....just trying to stop the telephone....Smara read Walshes book on Pca as well as others...there can be a very long time between " BCR" and required treatment...this is a forum with fallible people...We are all very far removed from...those who have much more knowledge...learning...and experience in the Pca conundrum...I will exclude GP from this group however...if they are under 70...( just graciously thowing in a easy point to to be countered for face saving puposes)..always allow an out...it gets nasty...when ya don't...I've learned how groups...move ...over the years

Actually logo, it all depends on how you define BCR. My PSA prior to treatment was .08. Now after 2 months of ADT, it’s <.05 / undetectable. I think that shows that the source of my PSA rise was NOT benign. Ergo, BCR .

From Wikipedia... “Biochemical recurrence is a rise in the blood level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) in prostate cancer patients after treatment with surgery or radiation. Biochemical recurrence may occur in patients who do not have symptoms. It may mean that the cancer has come back.”

Whether or not I needed treatment, is still debatable, but will never be known for sure. All that matters now, is that In my opinion, I did. Lidat😎

according to the nomograms I have a 20% chance of dying from PC.

when my wife finds out I didn't wash the breakfast dishes, I have a 100% chance of being killed tonight.

Smara, remember that a nomogram is a statistical summary--it says nothing at all about an individual's case. It gives guidance about the 'should we or shouldn't we' question and 'what do we have to gain (or lose)?