Coronavirus affecting April/May Decisions

Going to "parts of northern Italy" despite CDC recommendations against such travel.

That sounds like loads of fun.

One wonders if the (presumably) temporary measures now or soon to be in effect to control the cvirus may become permanent parts of our daily life.

The way, for example, that metal detectors have become commonplace at entrances to public buildings, installed some time ago as a counteraction to terrorism threats. We never saw them before terrorism started making the news. But now such detectors are commonplace, and it doesn't look like they'll be going away anytime soon.

So after the cvirus threat diminishes, hopefully as soon as possible, will we still keep the hand sanitizers available in public places, have security guards in those places ask sneezing, sniffling people to leave the area, etc? Even though no pandemic is thought to exist?

It's arguably a good policy to do so, some would say. Or would that be viewed as encroaching on personal freedom too much?

We have plenty of provisions for a month or more, but in our area there is no hand sanitizer or Lysol anywhere. Still TP on the shelves. We are not traveling or attending events, but had nothing planned anyway ,so not due to the virus or seasonal flu. At my Rotary club we have agreed to not shake hands. One member recently traveled to Japan, South Korea and India on business and he and family have self-quarantined. Healthy concern, but no one is worried or panicking. At Rotary and among our business clients are a significant number of CDC employees and scientists. None of them are panicking or suggesting anything radical.

Canada’s case incidence and deaths mirrors the USA based on population and I could not find anything about closings of events, schools etc. Their first case had traveled from China, then they got a couple from a cruise ship and are now saying that their cases will be spread from the USA.

Bernie Sanders had more than 15,000 in a rally over the weekend and the President is still shaking hands.

Should we close all the metropolitan subways? Disney, Universal, and other theme parks? Close, to the public, sporting events and concerts? Perhaps televise them only? It was reported yesterday that the disease can not be contained, but only mitigated. to what extent? What actions will be most effective with the least disruption to everyday life?

375 and 68. Real numbers. What are they? The number of shootings and homicides in Chicago since the first Covid-19 case was confirmed in the USA, in just two months.

mattam said...
I don't understand the point of the statistics posted about other causes of death. The point, it seems to me, is to keep the nationa running well enough to avoid the catastrophic problems that would come with a systems breakdown.

it muddies the waters, and usually it's intentional.

mattam said...
I don't understand the point of the statistics posted about other causes of death. The point, it seems to me, is to keep the nation running well enough to avoid the catastrophic problems that would come with a systems breakdown.

As Ed said, it muddies the waters. Citing seasonal influenza death statistics has nothing whatsoever to do with COVID-19. It would be like me citing lung cancer stats when talking about prostate cancer.

concern, and care is called for.

Unrestrained panic isn't.

If this does turn into Armageddon, there's little we can do about expect face it with grace. Running around screaming, "we're going to die." doesn't help.

slapshot said...

Buddy Blank said...
Going to "parts of northern Italy" despite CDC recommendations against such travel.

That sounds like loads of fun.

The areas of Northern Italy where we plan to travel have at this point very few Corona virus infections. In case you missed it, the date we will be arriving on our bikes in this area is still 6 months away. We will be aware of any changes regarding the spread of the virus in these areas and change our itinerary if required.

The Trentino, Sud Tirol and Belluno provinces of Italy are spectacular and we have had loads of fun in the past and I would guess this year will be no different.

Dave

****************

all of Italy is now on lockdown.

I don't think numbers of infections or deaths from flu or other diseases is relevant. We have around 12,000 to 60,000 flu deaths in this country in a typical year. Any infections or deaths from Covid 19 would be in addition to those. And unlike flu we have no vaccine and no individual or herd immunity from previous exposure to limit the spread. Many of us will probably get it, few of us will die. But a small percentage of deaths from a very large number of exposures could still be a very large number. 2.6 million Americans served in Vietnam. Very few of them died in combat. Nevertheless there are 58,000 names on the wall.

The actual number of cases so far compared to the U.S. and global population is tiny. But I had a professor who described exponential growth in terms of lily pads on a pond. If the area covered doubles every day, the day you notice the pond is half covered is one day before the pond is completely covered.

A cruise Prat? You got bigger balls than me.

Not likely Buddy, I’m 98% going to cancel.

Post Edited By Moderator (Pratoman) : 3/10/2020 5:40:31 AM (GMT-6)

Buddy Blank said...
I'd cancel going to Merlefest in two seconds flat. I suspect the reason the organizers of the event haven't canceled is m-o-n-e-y.

To be fair - We've gone to Merlefest for years in part because it spoils you for all other festivals and in part because it is for a good cause. The festival started a little over 30 years ago when Doc Watson's son and musical partner Merle died in a tractor roll-over. It was meant to be a one-time event to raise money for a memorial garden in Merle's name at the Wilkesboro Community College. So many musicians dropped what they were doing and came to the original memorial, that it became an annual event and is pretty much the kick-off event for the folk/roots/bluegrass festival season.

It runs as a non-profit - proceeds above expenses fund programs at the community college. Food vendors are mostly local groups - churches, boy and girl scouts, the college's culinary arts program, etc. On the Friday of the 4-day festival school kids are bused in from surrounding towns for a free day. Campgrounds with shuttle buses are set up all around the area. And the festival is dry, and therefore peaceable, which doesn't mean we don't share ample libations in the campgrounds.

My wife and always stay in the same reserved campsite in the large field behind the VFW hall because they have full water, electric, sewer hookups for trailers plus a large field that fills with tents and pop-ups. Two other campgrounds are run by volunteer fire departments that get a big slice of their annual budget from festival week. One of those fire department campgrounds is next to the sewer treatment facility - with dedicated campers who go there every year and can be seen wearing "Sewerfest" t-shirts at the festival.

As of now the festival is posting that they are in touch with local health and safety officials and following guidance of CDC -tripling the number of hand-wash stations, adding people to sanitizing crew etc., and will let us know if there are further developments. If the festival ends up canceled, I will offer to let them keep our payments for this year toward covering expenses or losses and and then reserve and pay again for next year.

We have a hiking/walking trip for Spain and Portugal planned for the end of May. We're not cancelling as of now, but I give us a <50% chance that we'll end up going. The tour provider--as of now--is showing little inclination to cancel any of their trips.

As part of this trip we also had tickets to see Paul McCartney in France, but if that's not cancelled, we'll also likely drop that since I don't like the idea of being in a big crowd right now. Unless, of course, everything blows over by May, which I think is unlikely.

Germany will cancel inbound flights by then. They've already banned meetings of over 1000 people.

Gov. Inslee said this evening that, based on the current 160 corona cases in Washington, geneticists modeling testing results and the spread of cases estimate there are about 1000 actual cases there (he said some estimates are several thousand).

Unless we adopt voluntary or involuntary measures, I think it's plausible that we see at least geometric, if not exponential, spread. The virus is highly contagious and we have no immunity. While the serious cases may "only" be 15-20% overall, that's not the figure for the elderly. In fact, the non-serious and asymptomatic cases may ensure the spread.

Post Edited (DjinTonic) : 3/9/2020 7:48:52 PM (GMT-6)