Containing COVID: saving lives versus saving jobs

compiler said...

If I take a financial hit, that's one thing.
Losing a loved one, or being dx. with the virus... seriously? I see no equivalence here whatsoever!

Mel

Agreed - If I, personally, take a financial hit, so be it. But if we keep the state's economy locked down so long that a large number of businesses can no longer re-open, then it will affect the local society in a much larger way. In this, there needs to be balance. If we are to keep things locked down until a cure or vaccine is available, plan on 18 to 24 months. This simply makes no sense. In the weeks between weeks 6 and 10 of the planned lock down here, there will be no significant progress toward the release of either a cure or a vaccine. So, as the Devil's advocate, I ask, "Why wait?"

Using restaurants as an example, when the stay-at-home order was implemented through April 30, the local restaurant association estimated that 25% of family-owned restaurants would fail and not re-open. When that order was extended through May 30, the association revised their estimate up to 50% not making it back. That is significant. This is probably true of a large array of family-owned and small businesses. Small businesses contribute (I've heard) 85% of jobs in this country. If we lose half of these small businesses, what is left of our economy?

Also, consider the local conditions. As mentioned, the stay-at-home orders do not avoid infections. They do delay infections so as to not overwhelm the local medical systems. In our state, these medical systems, with a few notable exceptions, have not gone beyond 50-60% utilization. They are nowhere near overwhelmed, so why continue these "draconian" measures to avoid a situation that simply is not present?

I'm not saying that I know what should be done. That is far beyond my pay grade. I am just very frustrated that there is not more dialog in government to figure out how to best balance the economy versus medical issues. That seems to be very characteristic of the country as a whole lately -- there is no middle ground in anything. Far left or far right. . . no in-between.

With you mattam about being in no hurry to trundle back into restaurants, bars etc. As to hair cuts, that had been a moot point for some time now. Customers are the other side of the opening up question. Some will return, but by no means all at once— guaranteeing a long recession or worse.

NewspaperLover, that's what I've been thinking for some time. I suspect that many people will hesitate--perhaps for some time--from doing the same things as before. Restaurants, Theaters, sporting events, etc may well have a hard time selling tickets.

Other things may go faster--hair cuts, nail salons, etc. may do better. Or, maybe not.

My comment the other day to wife was this: Those who have made it their political wish to bring back the 1950's, have their wish...overnight. How many of the every day things we have in our lives today even existed for most people back then? I suspect we may find that many of the activities and purchases that we found absolutely mandatory a few months ago simply aren't needed anymore. And, yeah, that will have a dramatic economic impact.

Paxton, I'm not sure I agree with you that we're destined for the same number of infections/deaths and the shutdown just pushes those cases later. If <1% of people walking around are positive vs 5%, that would have to make a difference in how fast the disease could re-ramp up. And decreasing the number of cases through this period gives us more time to increase testing and tracking, which can be effective over the long-term, based on the experience of places like South Korea. And while we won't have a vaccine or cure over the next 4 weeks, we could have more effective treatments. I know that if I get sick, I'd much rather it later than sooner.

As to capacity, I think the NYC experience shows that you can go from 50% capacity to 100%+ pretty quickly. I've read that if NYC had just been a few days faster with closing down, it would have made a significant difference.

For the record, I really hope that I'm wrong. I hope that Georgia and Texas show that opening up can easily be done without a significant increase in illness and death.

I don't understand how anyone can argue that people should go back to work when we don't have enough masks, gloves, and other supplies. Workers on the front lines deserve more than an excuse that it's good for the economy. When the $2 trillion + was given out, I wish it had gone to workers that are going to be pushed to save the economy by going back to work. It really makes me angry.

They will print more money.

Stephen S said...
I have a (hopefully) theoretical question....

What if the economic downturn is so severe it imperils the solvency of Social Security and Medicare?

There would be those in power who would cheer and applaud the elimination of these government give-aways. (Snark)

I give myself that haircut every morning with my electric razor. We do not go out to restaurants, theaters concerts or the like. The wife cut the front of her hair and had a coworker cut the back yesterday (vital industry so they are open). She dyes it at home.

Michigan has been slowly "reopening" for a week or so, just not big-time or out in the open. We had double the number of golf courses needed before this, many were on the rocks before last winter started, we know many will fail. Except the one North of town that got busted for mob money laundering. It is still open for some reason...... Ditto for restaurants - we have many more than the market can handle, some will fail no matter what.

Wife and I are going to our NY rental 'cottage' in the Adirondacks in June regardless. I will put on protective gear when we gas up, we will be careful at the hotel. We bring our own food for the whole trip so won't be in town for anything. Our only 'exposure' will be on the trails and we take the ones less traveled so that risk will be small.

It is no big deal to hit the grocery store wearing a mask and disposable gloves.

Social distancing is easy - if the muzzle of your AK - 47 is touching the muzzle of your neighbors AR - 15, that is close enough.

The leader of ReopenNC has tested positive for COVID-19. I wonder how many people this deluded idiot infected? I can't believe how stupid some people are.

https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/leader-of-reopennc-group-tested-positive-for-covid-19-quarantined-herself/19073926/

LOL I've the same pee bottle. My wife the same problem.

I know I'm also a sample of 1, but I am also a VRBO owner, with rental cabins in the Maine woods. I've made the decision to cancel all my tenants for the summer except for 1 (scheduled for the week before labor day), because I had no good answer to questions about sanitizing between tenants.

I bet I"m also not the only one.

Prato's post got me to thinking about my own situation, i.e. what I do and what I will do. I know there is a real continuum here. Obviously some people are going about life as usual and others are hermits. I think it may depend a lot on both our personal experiences in our area with the virus and perhaps our general personal risk tolerance. For me, here are a few questions I asked myself after reading Prato's post:

1. Would I use bottles to pee, carry a cooler and do a non-stop trip.from Florida to NYC? No...I would stop at rest stops wearing a mask and carrying my own TP if needed. I would do take out meals and carefully separate the food from the outer packaging. I would do one overnight in a Marriott. (But realize I couldn't do that in SC if I had a NY plate).
2. Would I get a haircut now? No. How about in a month? Probably, if the barber has procedures in place re sanitizing and social distancing.
3. Would I eat out at a restaurant? No, but I would and have done carry out. How about in a month? Probably not.
4. Would I go to a movie? No. In a month? No In a year? Maybe if I had been vaccinated.
5. Would I have friends over for drinks? Yes. As long as I sanitized the chairs, they were BYOB and glasses and we did it outside (driveway or lanai) and stayed six feet apart.
6. Would I go to the grocery store? Yes...but only wearing a mask and staying as far away from the other customers as possible. Also, only to stores with partitions between the cashiers and patrons and to stores where the employees all wear masks and who encourage patrons to do the same.
7. Would I go to Home Depot? Yes but only if I really need something and then with precautions like #6.
8. Would I go to the beach if opened? Yes, but only to an empty section where I could stay 6 feet away from others.
9. Would I fly on a plane? No. In a month? No. In a year? Probably if I have been vaccinated or in an emergency.
10. Would I take a cruise? No. In a month? No. In a year? Probably not.

I could go on but found it interesting (at least to me) to compare my approach to what others are doing...

Jim

Paxton said...
...
My frustration is that I don't see how delaying that choice makes a meaningful difference in outcomes. We cannot hide in caves until this "all blows over" because it will not blow over....
.

Whenever and however we begin to relax our current measures, we have to make very sure that the healthcare system and hospitals aren't overwhelmed if things take a turn for the worse. Gov. Cuomo said one of the factors he'll be using will be to dial back relaxation if hospital capacity goes above 70%.

We don't have a "B Team" to send into hospitals while the staff takes a holiday.

Intelligent compromise seems reasonable.

Djin